The Trade Lane Outlook provides a summary of the four-week risk forecast for three major trade lanes, highlighting where capacity, booking acceptance, service reliability, port performance, and transit time signals may create operational pressure.
Trade Lane Risk Matrix
A heatmap view of the four-week risk outlook, providing an at-a-glance view of the key risk areas: capacity, on-time performance, and transit time.
Signals are calculated from carrier schedules, forecast demand and supply, booking acceptance rates, shipment arrival performance, and port operating indicators to show where risk is expected to build, ease, or remain stable.
Risk Key
High: Elevated disruption risk, with a greater potential impact on booking acceptance, freight rates, or schedule and service reliability.
Medium: Emerging or moderate risk that should be monitored.
Low: Comparatively stable conditions with a lower risk of near-term disruption.
| Trade Lane | Capacity Risk | On-Time Risk | Transit Time Risk | Overall Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia → N. America | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).capacity} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).onTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).transitTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).overall} |
| Asia → Europe | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).capacity} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).onTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).transitTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).overall} |
| Europe → N. America | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).capacity} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).onTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).transitTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).overall} |
Risk remains elevated as capacity tightens later in the outlook and booking acceptance risk stays high
Capacity conditions tighten in the second half of the month ahead, driven by reduced planned carrier capacity rather than stronger demand. The Demand-to-Supply signal indicates a capacity constraint in WK47, with conditions remaining tight in WK48 despite easing forecast demand. Booking Security Risk remains well above its historical average and increases towards the end of the outlook, indicating continued risk to securing space on preferred sailings.
Service reliability remains weak. Monthly on-time performance declined from 26.9% in September to 25.6% in October. The latest weekly result improved to 27.3%, but delays of eight days or more remained the largest arrival outcome, indicating that prolonged delays continue to pose a risk to shipment lead times.
The regional waterside port signal remains below its historical average, consistent with reports of easing Asian bottlenecks. However, continuing berthing delays and renewed weather disruption across East Asia remain risks to vessel schedules. Potential industrial action presents an additional risk over the month ahead, with any resulting disruption not yet reflected in the November Outlook’s reported performance.
Planned transit times, based on carrier-published sailing schedules, remain below the recent 28.1-day baseline throughout the month ahead. However, shipment transit-time reliability declined to 21% in October, down six percentage points from September. This measures actual container transit time against the estimate at booking confirmation, indicating that shorter published schedules do not necessarily translate into more predictable shipment lead times.
Across the top 10 carriers, booking acceptance risk varies substantially, making carrier-specific performance important when securing space. Service reliability remains weak across the group, with even the strongest October on-time performer achieving only around 30%. Carrier selection can help manage booking acceptance and delivery risk, but additional lead-time allowance remains necessary even with the stronger-performing carriers.
Over the month ahead, tighter capacity and elevated booking acceptance risk make securing space on preferred sailings more challenging, particularly in WK47–48. Weak service reliability and declining transit-time reliability also leave shipment lead times exposed to delays.
Major Regional Port On Time Arrival Risk
High Risk: ≥ 4 days delay
Medium Risk: 1 - 3 days delay
Low Risk: 0 days delay
Asia → N. America: D:S Ratio & BSR
Capacity tightens later in the outlook, while Booking Security Risk remains well above its historical average.
Reliability risk remains high despite easing capacity pressure and low booking acceptance risk
Forecast demand is close to planned carrier capacity initially, before softer demand and increased planned carrier capacity ease conditions later in the month ahead. Booking Security Risk remains below its historical average throughout the outlook, indicating comparatively low booking acceptance risk.
Service reliability remains very weak. Monthly on-time performance declined from 9.9% in September to 9.3% in October, while the latest weekly result fell to 6.5%. Delays of eight days or more remained the largest arrival outcome throughout the four most recent weeks, accounting for 39.1% in the latest week and highlighting continued risk of prolonged shipment delays.
The regional waterside port signal remains below its historical average, consistent with reports of easing Asian bottlenecks. However, continuing berthing delays and renewed weather disruption across East Asia remain risks to vessel schedules. Reports of industrial action at European ports add further disruption risk over the month ahead.
Planned transit times, based on carrier-published sailing schedules, are slightly above the recent 38.3-day baseline initially, then shorten below it over the month ahead. However, shipment transit-time reliability declined to 35% in October, down five percentage points from September. This measures actual container transit time against the estimate at booking confirmation, indicating that shorter published schedules do not necessarily translate into more predictable shipment lead times.
Service reliability remains weak across the top 10 carriers, with even the strongest October on-time performer below 23%. Booking acceptance risk is comparatively low for most carriers, although some show substantially higher risk. Carrier-specific performance remains important when selecting services, but wider reliability weakness limits the extent to which carrier selection alone can protect shipment lead times.
Over the month ahead, weak service reliability and declining transit-time reliability remain the main risks to shipment lead times, despite easing capacity pressure and comparatively low booking acceptance risk.
Major Regional Port On Time Arrival Risk
High Risk: ≥ 4 days delay
Medium Risk: 1 - 3 days delay
Low Risk: 0 days delay
Asia → Europe: D:S Ratio & BSR
Capacity pressure eases after the opening week as forecast demand declines and planned carrier capacity increases later in the outlook, while Booking Security Risk remains below its historical average.
Capacity and booking acceptance risk remain low, but weakening service reliability increases delivery risk
Planned carrier capacity remains above forecast demand throughout the month ahead. A temporary tightening in WK46 is driven by reduced planned carrier capacity rather than stronger demand, with no lane-wide capacity constraint indicated. Booking Security Risk generally eases and remains below its historical average, indicating comparatively low booking acceptance risk.
Service reliability has weakened. Monthly on-time performance declined from 39.2% in September to 34.8% in October, while the latest weekly result fell from 35.2% to 24.6%. Delays of one to three days remained the largest arrival outcome, highlighting the need to allow additional time in delivery plans.
The regional waterside port signal remains below its historical average and eased in the latest reading. However, reports of industrial action at European ports present an additional risk to vessel schedules over the month ahead.
Planned transit times, based on carrier-published sailing schedules, remain below the recent 18.3-day baseline throughout the month ahead. However, shipment transit-time reliability declined to 46% in October, down three percentage points from September. This measures actual container transit time against the estimate at booking confirmation, indicating that shorter published schedules do not necessarily translate into more predictable shipment lead times.
Service reliability varies substantially across the top 10 carriers, with October on-time performance ranging from approximately 10% to 71%. Booking acceptance risk is generally lower towards the end of the outlook, although differences between carriers remain. Carrier selection offers meaningful scope to manage delivery risk, particularly for time-sensitive shipments.
Over the month ahead, weaker service reliability and declining transit-time reliability remain the main risks to shipment lead times. Capacity and booking acceptance risk remain comparatively low.
Major Regional Port On Time Arrival Risk
High Risk: ≥ 4 days delay
Medium Risk: 1 - 3 days delay
Low Risk: 0 days delay
Europe → N. America: D:S Ratio & BSR
Planned carrier capacity remains above forecast demand throughout the outlook, while Booking Security Risk generally eases and stays below its historical average.
The Capacity Risk Outlook shows where forecast demand may exceed planned carrier supply, and where tightening conditions may increase booking disruption or reduce confidence in securing space.
Capacity Risk Forecast Signals
Demand to Supply Ratio
Forecast cargo demand measured against the shipping capacity carriers plan to deploy. Indicates whether there is enough capacity to meet demand, and whether pressure is building from demand growth or capacity reductions.
Booking Security Risk
Estimates the share of bookings at risk of not securing capacity by combining initial carrier rejections with risk-adjusted pending decisions. Indicates when structural tightening begins to affect booking outcomes.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast by Trade Lane
The demand to supply ratio compares forecast cargo demand with the shipping capacity carriers plan to deploy across each trade lane. Values above 100% indicate that forecast demand is expected to exceed planned supply, increasing the risk of tighter space, booking acceptance, and upward rate pressure.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Trend
Weekly demand to supply ratio movement across key trade lanes. Higher values indicate tightening capacity conditions and increased exposure to booking pressure.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Heatmap
The Demand to Supply Ratio heatmap shows where forecast demand is expected to sit relative to planned carrier capacity. Higher values indicate tighter space conditions and greater potential for booking rejection, service variability, and rate pressure.
High Risk: > 100%
Medium Risk: Between 90% & 99%
Low Risk: < 89%
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Trend
Weekly demand to supply ratio movement across key trade lanes. Higher values indicate tightening capacity conditions and increased exposure to booking pressure.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Heatmap
The Demand to Supply Ratio heatmap shows where forecast demand is expected to sit relative to planned carrier capacity. Higher values indicate tighter space conditions and greater potential for booking rejection, service variability, and rate pressure.
High Risk: > 100%
Medium Risk: Between 90% & 99%
Low Risk: < 89%
Booking Security Risk Forecast (BSR)
Booking Security Risk estimates the likelihood that booking requests will not be accepted due to capacity constraints. It combines initial carrier rejections with risk-adjusted pending booking decisions to show when market tightening is also beginning to affect booking outcomes.
Booking Security Risk Forecast Heatmap
Booking Security Risk (BSR) shows the likelihood of booking rejection for each trade lane. Higher values indicate greater exposure to booking disruption and reduced confidence in securing planned capacity.
High Risk: > 5% above average
Medium Risk: Between 5% below & 5% above average
Low Risk: > 5% below average
Booking Security Risk Forecast Heatmap
Booking Security Risk (BSR) shows the likelihood of booking rejection for each trade lane. Higher values indicate greater exposure to booking disruption and reduced confidence in securing planned capacity.
High Risk: > 5% above average
Medium Risk: Between 5% below & 5% above average
Low Risk: > 5% below average
The Reliability Risk Outlook highlights where service performance may affect lead times across key trade lanes. It combines carrier on-time arrival performance, delay severity, port performance, and scheduled transit time signals to show where disruption risk is increasing, easing, or remaining stable.
Service Reliability Forecast Signals
On-Time Arrival Performance
Near real-time signal showing the percentage of shipments arriving at the Port of Discharge on or before the carrier's promised schedule. Displays the last completed ISO week as the current reading, plus the 3 prior weeks to reveal trends.
Delay Severity
Identifies the dominant delay band and the proportion of shipments within that band, indicating whether delays are marginal or material.
Port Operating Conditions
Combines current port operating efficiency and expected vessel workload to assess whether operating pressure is building or easing.
Scheduled Transit Time
Aggregates carrier published sailing schedules to derive average transit days per trade lane for the next 4 weeks (first POL to first POD). Highlights whether scheduled transit times are lengthening, stable, or shortening relative to the rolling baseline.
On-Time Arrival and Delay Severity
On-time arrival performance measures the percentage of shipments arriving at the Port of Discharge on or before the carrier’s promised schedule. Delay severity identifies the dominant delay band and the proportion of TEU within that band, showing whether delays are marginal, moderate, or material. Together, these indicators show both the frequency and severity of reliability disruption across each trade lane.
Historical averages over the previous 12 months provide context for current performance, showing how it compares with the range observed over that period.
On-Time Performance by Month — Headhaul Lanes
Monthly average on-time arrival rates (%) for key headhaul trade lanes
On-Time Arrival Heatmap
Weekly on-time arrival performance across key trade lanes. Higher percentages indicate stronger schedule reliability and lower risk to planned arrival windows.
High Risk: < 20%
Medium Risk: Between 20% & 40%
Low Risk: > 40%
On-Time Performance by Month — Backhaul Lanes
Monthly average on-time arrival rates (%) for key backhaul trade lanes
On-Time Arrival Heatmap
Weekly on-time arrival performance across key trade lanes. Higher percentages indicate stronger schedule reliability and lower risk to planned arrival windows.
High Risk: < 20%
Medium Risk: Between 20% & 40%
Low Risk: > 40%
Port Operating Conditions
Port performance is represented by a Port Performance Signal that captures congestion and operational pressure using vessel queue, waiting time, turnaround time, and terminal utilization.
Regional Operational Stress
Regional operational stress shows whether port operating pressure is building, easing, or remaining stable across key regions. Higher signal values indicate greater congestion or operational pressure that may affect on-time performance.
Trade Lane Port Performance Heatmap
Port performance is represented by a short-term signal that captures congestion and operational pressure across each trade lane using origin and destination regional conditions, weighted by port TEU throughput.
High Risk: > 80
Medium Risk: 50-80
Low Risk: < 50
Scheduled Transit Time
Scheduled transit time shows average transit days from carrier published sailing schedules, measured from first POL to first POD in the origin and destination region. Longer transit times relative to baseline indicate weaker schedule confidence and higher risk to delivery planning.
The Carrier Risk Outlook compares on-time performance and Booking Security Risk across major carriers, showing how carrier selection can influence booking outcomes, service reliability and supply chain risk.
Carrier Risk Signals
On-Time Arrival Performance
Measures the proportion of shipments arriving at the port of discharge on or before the carrier's promised schedule. The spread across carriers highlights differences in realised service reliability.
Booking Security Risk
Estimates the share of bookings at risk of not securing capacity by combining initial carrier rejections with risk-adjusted pending decisions. Higher values indicate greater capacity-access risk.
Carrier Risk Matrix
Compare carriers by recent service reliability and forward booking security risk. Each point represents a de-identified carrier.
Higher combined risk - Lower on-time performance and elevated Booking Security Risk.
Capacity-access risk - Higher on-time performance but elevated Booking Security Risk.
Service reliability risk - Lower on-time performance despite lower Booking Security Risk.
Lower combined risk - Higher on-time performance and lower Booking Security Risk.
Frequently asked questions
The Ocean Freight Risk Outlook (OFRO) is a free, public four-week view of ocean freight risk across three major trade lanes: Asia to North America, Asia to Europe, and Europe to North America. It helps logistics professionals monitor emerging ocean freight trends, assess potential supply chain disruptions, and identify where freight conditions may improve, deteriorate, or remain stable over a month’s period. The report combines Capacity Risk, Reliability Risk, and Carrier Risk signals to provide a forward-looking global shipping outlook across key trade lanes.
The OFRO provides visibility into three key dimensions of ocean freight risk:
Capacity Risk: demand-to-supply ratio (D:S ratio) and booking security risk (BSR) forecasts
Reliability Risk: on-time arrival performance, delay severity, regional operational performance, trade lane port performance and scheduled transit time forecasts
Carrier Risk: historical and forward carrier performance indicators
Together, these signals help identify where freight risk may affect booking confidence, schedule reliability, shipment execution, and broader ocean freight delays across global supply chains.
Port congestion can develop when the number of vessels waiting at anchorage places pressure on port and terminal operations, creating delays, schedule variability, and reduced operational performance. While the OFRO does not track every individual congestion metric, it helps identify where port-performance conditions may contribute to wider reliability risks and ocean freight delays across major trade lanes.
The OFRO is designed to forecast ocean freight risk, not to act as a standalone port congestion tracker. The Reliability Risk assessment incorporates regional operational performance and trade lane port performance alongside on-time arrival performance, delay severity and transit-time signals to help identify where port congestion-related pressure may affect supply chain performance.
Carrier schedule reliability reflects how consistently shipments arrive according to expected transit schedules. The Ocean Freight Risk Outlook incorporates carrier performance indicators alongside reliability and capacity signals to provide a broader view of carrier schedule reliability, trade lane performance and emerging ocean freight trends.
The OFRO combines multiple Reliability Risk signals, including on-time arrival performance, delay severity, regional operational performance, trade lane port performance, and scheduled transit times. These measures help highlight where shipping delays, ocean freight delays, and reliability challenges may be increasing or easing.
The Ocean Freight Risk Outlook gives forwarders and shippers a snapshot of where ocean freight conditions are expected to improve, deteriorate or remain stable across three of the world's most important trade lanes. It can help teams identify emerging capacity, reliability and carrier risks that may affect bookings, schedules or shipment performance, supporting more informed carrier selection, lead-time planning and contingency planning.
The public report provides a high-level view of the broader capabilities available within CargoWise Market Intelligence & Analytics. Within the platform, customers can analyze the underlying drivers of trade lane performance, benchmark individual carriers, ports and trade lanes, evaluate carrier schedule reliability, and compare performance across their supply chain network to support more informed operational decisions.
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WiseTech Global is developing a more comprehensive report, with frequent updates and longer forecasting periods, giving customers deeper insights and greater visibility into emerging risks across the global supply chain. Register your interest for updates on the product development and to receive first access.
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