The Trade Lane Outlook provides a summary of the four-week risk forecast for three major trade lanes, highlighting where capacity, booking acceptance, service reliability, port performance, and transit time signals may create operational pressure.
Trade Lane Risk Matrix
A heatmap view of the four-week risk outlook, providing an at-a-glance view of the key risk areas: capacity, on-time performance, and transit time.
Signals are calculated from carrier schedules, forecast demand and supply, booking acceptance rates, shipment arrival performance, and port operating indicators to show where risk is expected to build, ease, or remain stable.
Risk Key
High: Elevated disruption risk, with a greater potential impact on booking acceptance, freight rates, or schedule and service reliability.
Medium: Emerging or moderate risk that should be monitored.
Low: Comparatively stable conditions with a lower risk of near-term disruption.
| Trade Lane | Capacity Risk | On-Time Risk | Transit Time Risk | Overall Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia → N. America | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).capacity} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).onTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).transitTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → N. America).overall} |
| Asia → Europe | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).capacity} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).onTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).transitTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Asia → Europe).overall} |
| Europe → N. America | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).capacity} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).onTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).transitTime} | {tradeLaneRisk.sections.tradeLaneRiskMatrix.rows(Europe → N. America).overall} |
Capacity and booking acceptance risk are forecast to increase over the month ahead
Capacity is forecast to tighten towards the end of the outlook period, driven by reduced planned carrier capacity rather than stronger demand. Booking security risk also increases, remaining well above its historical average and indicating greater risk to securing space on preferred sailings.
Service reliability remains weak, with monthly on-time performance declining from 33.9% in August to 26.9% in September, while the latest weekly result was 26.8%, showing little improvement on recent performance. Delays of eight days or more remained the largest outcome in the latest week, indicating that prolonged delays remain a risk. The port performance signal shows increased waterside operating pressure in September, driven by continuing disruption at Asian ports, with vessel delays reducing effective capacity on the trans-Pacific trade. China’s Golden Week holiday adds seasonal disruption to production and cargo flows. A post-holiday easing in demand may therefore not immediately translate into easier access to space or more reliable schedules.
Planned transit times remain below the recent 28-day baseline, ranging from 26.2 to 27.6 days over the month ahead. Published schedules therefore show no additional transit-time risk, although weak service reliability continues to create uncertainty around actual arrival dates.
The outlook shows substantial differences across the top 10 carriers in service reliability and booking acceptance risk.
Over the month ahead, increasing capacity and booking acceptance risk will make securing space more challenging, while weak service reliability continues to create risk to shipment lead times.
Major Regional Port On Time Arrival Risk
High Risk: ≥ 4 days delay
Medium Risk: 1 - 3 days delay
Low Risk: 0 days delay
Asia → N. America: D:S Ratio & BSR
Capacity is forecast to tighten towards the end of the outlook, while Booking Security Risk increases and remains well above its historical average
What this means
Forwarders and BCOs should plan bookings early against contracted allocations and allow additional time in delivery commitments based on carrier-specific reliability.
Reliability risk is worsening despite available capacity and low booking acceptance risk
Service reliability remains the main concern across the outlook period. In September, monthly on-time performance fell from 22.9% in August to 9.9%. The latest weekly result improved marginally to 11.5%, but remains very low. Delays of eight days or more accounted for 45.5% of volume in the latest week, indicating substantial risk to shipment lead times. While, planned carrier capacity remains above forecast demand throughout the month ahead. Despite capacity expected to tighten towards the end of the outlook, driven by reduced planned carrier capacity rather than stronger demand, no lane-wide capacity constraint is forecast.
Booking security risk remains well below its historical average, indicating comparatively low booking acceptance risk. The risk of securing space across the month/outlook is relatively low, compared to the risk of shipping delays, driven by low service reliability and port performance
The port performance signal shows increased waterside operating pressure in September, with delays reported at Asian ports, adding to the risk of unreliable arrival schedules. Export demand is forecast to ease over the month ahead, reflecting the impact of China’s Golden Week holiday.
Planned transit times remain below the recent 40.7-day baseline, ranging from 37.8 to 39.9 days over the month ahead. Shorter published schedules do not indicate improved service reliability, with recent arrival performance continuing to show substantial delays.
Recent on-time performance remains weak even among the strongest performing carriers, suggesting market-wide risk is limiting the extent to which carrier selection alone can protect shipment lead times. Asian port congestion and changes between Suez and Cape routings may be contributing to this wider network disruption. Carrier-specific reliability should remain a priority when selecting services, despite comparatively low booking acceptance risk across the lane. Over the month ahead, weak service reliability and prolonged delays remain the main risks to shipment lead times, while capacity availability and booking acceptance remain comparatively favourable.
Major Regional Port On Time Arrival Risk
High Risk: ≥ 4 days delay
Medium Risk: 1 - 3 days delay
Low Risk: 0 days delay
Asia → Europe: D:S Ratio & BSR
Planned carrier capacity remains above forecast demand throughout the outlook, while Booking Security Risk stays well below its historical average.
What this means
Forwarders and BCOs should prioritise carrier-specific reliability and allow additional time in delivery commitments. Available capacity and low booking acceptance risk provide more choice when selecting services, but prolonged delays remain a concern for time-sensitive shipments.
Capacity and booking risk remain low, but weaker service reliability increases on time delivery risk
Planned carrier capacity remains above forecast demand throughout the outlook period. Increased planned capacity and softer demand ease capacity conditions initially, with some tightening later in the outlook as planned carrier capacity reduces.
Booking security risk generally eases and remains below its historical average, indicating comparatively low booking acceptance risk across the lane, driven a relatively low demand to supply ratio.
Service reliability is set to remain below last month’s stronger position, although the latest weekly result improved. Monthly on-time performance declined from 42.8% in August to 39.2% in September, while weekly performance increased to 38.6%, with on-time arrivals the dominant outcome in the latest week. The port performance signal remains below its historical average in both September and recent weekly readings.
Planned transit times remain broadly around the recent 19.1-day baseline, ranging from 17.7 to 19.5 days over the month ahead. Published schedules show no sustained lengthening, although weaker service reliability remains a risk to actual arrival dates.
Carrier on-time performance ranged from approximately 14% to 61% in September. Across major carriers, booking acceptance risk is generally low, although some remain above the lane average. Carrier selection remains important where consistent arrival timing is a priority.
Over the month ahead, capacity and booking acceptance risk remain comparatively low, while weaker recent service reliability makes arrival timing the main risk to monitor.
Major Regional Port On Time Arrival Risk
High Risk: ≥ 4 days delay
Medium Risk: 1 - 3 days delay
Low Risk: 0 days delay
Europe → N. America: D:S Ratio & BSR
Planned carrier capacity remains above forecast demand throughout the outlook, while Booking Security Risk generally eases and stays below its historical average
What this means
Forwarders and BCOs should face comparatively limited capacity and booking disruption. For time-sensitive shipments, prioritise carriers with stronger recent reliability and allow additional time in delivery commitments.
The Capacity Risk Outlook shows where forecast demand may exceed planned carrier supply, and where tightening conditions may increase booking disruption or reduce confidence in securing space.
Capacity Risk Forecast Signals
Demand to Supply Ratio
Forecast cargo demand measured against the shipping capacity carriers plan to deploy. Indicates whether there is enough capacity to meet demand, and whether pressure is building from demand growth or capacity reductions.
Booking Security Risk
Estimates the share of bookings at risk of not securing capacity by combining initial carrier rejections with risk-adjusted pending decisions. Indicates when structural tightening begins to affect booking outcomes.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast by Trade Lane
The demand to supply ratio compares forecast cargo demand with the shipping capacity carriers plan to deploy across each trade lane. Values above 100% indicate that forecast demand is expected to exceed planned supply, increasing the risk of tighter space, booking acceptance, and upward rate pressure.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Trend
Weekly demand to supply ratio movement across key trade lanes. Higher values indicate tightening capacity conditions and increased exposure to booking pressure.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Heatmap
The Demand to Supply Ratio heatmap shows where forecast demand is expected to sit relative to planned carrier capacity. Higher values indicate tighter space conditions and greater potential for booking rejection, service variability, and rate pressure.
High Risk: > 100%
Medium Risk: Between 90% & 99%
Low Risk: < 89%
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Trend
Weekly demand to supply ratio movement across key trade lanes. Higher values indicate tightening capacity conditions and increased exposure to booking pressure.
Demand to Supply Ratio Forecast Heatmap
The Demand to Supply Ratio heatmap shows where forecast demand is expected to sit relative to planned carrier capacity. Higher values indicate tighter space conditions and greater potential for booking rejection, service variability, and rate pressure.
High Risk: > 100%
Medium Risk: Between 90% & 99%
Low Risk: < 89%
Booking Security Risk Forecast (BSR)
Booking Security Risk estimates the likelihood that booking requests will not be accepted due to capacity constraints. It combines initial carrier rejections with risk-adjusted pending booking decisions to show when market tightening is also beginning to affect booking outcomes.
Booking Security Risk Forecast Heatmap
Booking Security Risk (BSR) shows the likelihood of booking rejection for each trade lane. Higher values indicate greater exposure to booking disruption and reduced confidence in securing planned capacity.
High Risk: > 5% above average
Medium Risk: Between 5% below & 5% above average
Low Risk: > 5% below average
Booking Security Risk Forecast Heatmap
Booking Security Risk (BSR) shows the likelihood of booking rejection for each trade lane. Higher values indicate greater exposure to booking disruption and reduced confidence in securing planned capacity.
High Risk: > 5% above average
Medium Risk: Between 5% below & 5% above average
Low Risk: > 5% below average
The Reliability Risk Outlook highlights where service performance may affect lead times across key trade lanes. It combines carrier on-time arrival performance, delay severity, port performance, and scheduled transit time signals to show where disruption risk is increasing, easing, or remaining stable.
Service Reliability Forecast Signals
On-Time Arrival Performance
Near real-time signal showing the percentage of shipments arriving at the Port of Discharge on or before the carrier's promised schedule. Displays the last completed ISO week as the current reading, plus the 3 prior weeks to reveal trends.
Delay Severity
Identifies the dominant delay band and the proportion of shipments within that band, indicating whether delays are marginal or material.
Port Operating Conditions
Combines current port operating efficiency and expected vessel workload to assess whether operating pressure is building or easing.
Scheduled Transit Time
Aggregates carrier published sailing schedules to derive average transit days per trade lane for the next 4 weeks (first POL to first POD). Highlights whether scheduled transit times are lengthening, stable, or shortening relative to the rolling baseline.
On-Time Arrival and Delay Severity
On-time arrival performance measures the percentage of shipments arriving at the Port of Discharge on or before the carrier’s promised schedule. Delay severity identifies the dominant delay band and the proportion of TEU within that band, showing whether delays are marginal, moderate, or material. Together, these indicators show both the frequency and severity of reliability disruption across each trade lane.
Historical averages over the previous 12 months provide context for current performance, showing how it compares with the range observed over that period.
On-Time Performance by Month — Headhaul Lanes
Monthly average on-time arrival rates (%) for key headhaul trade lanes
On-Time Arrival Heatmap
Weekly on-time arrival performance across key trade lanes. Higher percentages indicate stronger schedule reliability and lower risk to planned arrival windows.
High Risk: < 20%
Medium Risk: Between 20% & 40%
Low Risk: > 40%
On-Time Performance by Month — Backhaul Lanes
Monthly average on-time arrival rates (%) for key backhaul trade lanes
On-Time Arrival Heatmap
Weekly on-time arrival performance across key trade lanes. Higher percentages indicate stronger schedule reliability and lower risk to planned arrival windows.
High Risk: < 20%
Medium Risk: Between 20% & 40%
Low Risk: > 40%
Port Operating Conditions
Port performance is represented by a Port Performance Signal that captures congestion and operational pressure using vessel queue, waiting time, turnaround time, and terminal utilization.
Regional Operational Stress
Regional operational stress shows whether port operating pressure is building, easing, or remaining stable across key regions. Higher signal values indicate greater congestion or operational pressure that may affect on-time performance.
Trade Lane Port Performance Heatmap
Port performance is represented by a short-term signal that captures congestion and operational pressure across each trade lane using origin and destination regional conditions, weighted by port TEU throughput.
High Risk: > 80
Medium Risk: 50-80
Low Risk: < 50
Scheduled Transit Time
Scheduled transit time shows average transit days from carrier published sailing schedules, measured from first POL to first POD in the origin and destination region. Longer transit times relative to baseline indicate weaker schedule confidence and higher risk to delivery planning.
The Carrier Risk Outlook compares on-time performance and Booking Security Risk across major carriers, showing how carrier selection can influence booking outcomes, service reliability and supply chain risk.
Carrier Risk Signals
On-Time Arrival Performance
Measures the proportion of shipments arriving at the port of discharge on or before the carrier's promised schedule. The spread across carriers highlights differences in realised service reliability.
Booking Security Risk
Estimates the share of bookings at risk of not securing capacity by combining initial carrier rejections with risk-adjusted pending decisions. Higher values indicate greater capacity-access risk.
Carrier Risk Matrix
Compare carriers by recent service reliability and forward booking security risk. Each point represents a de-identified carrier.
Higher combined risk - Lower on-time performance and elevated Booking Security Risk.
Capacity-access risk - Higher on-time performance but elevated Booking Security Risk.
Service reliability risk - Lower on-time performance despite lower Booking Security Risk.
Lower combined risk - Higher on-time performance and lower Booking Security Risk.
Frequently asked questions
The Ocean Freight Risk Outlook (OFRO) is a free, public four-week view of ocean freight risk across three major trade lanes: Asia to North America, Asia to Europe, and Europe to North America. It helps logistics professionals monitor emerging ocean freight trends, assess potential supply chain disruptions, and identify where freight conditions may improve, deteriorate, or remain stable over a month’s period. The report combines Capacity Risk, Reliability Risk, and Carrier Risk signals to provide a forward-looking global shipping outlook across key trade lanes.
The OFRO provides visibility into three key dimensions of ocean freight risk:
Capacity Risk: demand-to-supply ratio (D:S ratio) and booking security risk (BSR) forecasts
Reliability Risk: on-time arrival performance, delay severity, regional operational performance, trade lane port performance and scheduled transit time forecasts
Carrier Risk: historical and forward carrier performance indicators
Together, these signals help identify where freight risk may affect booking confidence, schedule reliability, shipment execution, and broader ocean freight delays across global supply chains.
Port congestion can develop when the number of vessels waiting at anchorage places pressure on port and terminal operations, creating delays, schedule variability, and reduced operational performance. While the OFRO does not track every individual congestion metric, it helps identify where port-performance conditions may contribute to wider reliability risks and ocean freight delays across major trade lanes.
The OFRO is designed to forecast ocean freight risk, not to act as a standalone port congestion tracker. The Reliability Risk assessment incorporates regional operational performance and trade lane port performance alongside on-time arrival performance, delay severity and transit-time signals to help identify where port congestion-related pressure may affect supply chain performance.
Carrier schedule reliability reflects how consistently shipments arrive according to expected transit schedules. The Ocean Freight Risk Outlook incorporates carrier performance indicators alongside reliability and capacity signals to provide a broader view of carrier schedule reliability, trade lane performance and emerging ocean freight trends.
The OFRO combines multiple Reliability Risk signals, including on-time arrival performance, delay severity, regional operational performance, trade lane port performance, and scheduled transit times. These measures help highlight where shipping delays, ocean freight delays, and reliability challenges may be increasing or easing.
The Ocean Freight Risk Outlook gives forwarders and shippers a snapshot of where ocean freight conditions are expected to improve, deteriorate or remain stable across three of the world's most important trade lanes. It can help teams identify emerging capacity, reliability and carrier risks that may affect bookings, schedules or shipment performance, supporting more informed carrier selection, lead-time planning and contingency planning.
The public report provides a high-level view of the broader capabilities available within CargoWise Market Intelligence & Analytics. Within the platform, customers can analyze the underlying drivers of trade lane performance, benchmark individual carriers, ports and trade lanes, evaluate carrier schedule reliability, and compare performance across their supply chain network to support more informed operational decisions.
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WiseTech Global is developing a more comprehensive report, with frequent updates and longer forecasting periods, giving customers deeper insights and greater visibility into emerging risks across the global supply chain. Register your interest for updates on the product development and to receive first access.
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